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The market price is low and the players are a bit weak. Everyone bows down, no one hates extremists.
Written by Jonathan RandenSenior Market Analyst at PrimeXBT
In mid-September, the setup looked bad for Bitcoin. The Clarity Act failed in the Senate on September 15, and the Fed raised interest rates on it 3.75 to 4.00% the next day. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly traded below $75,000. A week later it was above $87,000.
Then the bond market moved, and Bitcoin stopped rising.
What happened in bonds
On September 23, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped more than… 18 basis pointsIt is the biggest one-day rise since April 2025. It continued to rise and rose higher 5.2% The next day, it was the highest level since 2007. The year reached about 30 5.50%This is a level last seen in 2004.
There was not a single operator. Strong PMI data, a weak five-year auction and higher oil prices played a role. The Treasury Department even brought back the purchase 4 billion dollars of long bonds on September 24, and yields are still rising.
Why didn’t height matter that much?
Everyone saw it coming. By the eve of the meeting, futures markets were pricing in the rally at a level close to 90%. Some of Bitcoin’s weakness in previous weeks arguably reflects this repricing.
ETF flows show that. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost approx 750 million dollars On September 15 and 16, she then took power $2.39 billion in the week ending September 25, their biggest week since October 2025 according to Farside Investors.
Why do bonds move differently?
Look at those flows day by day: 999 million dollars Monday then $715 million, $347 million, $191 million and $135 million Friday. The buying never stopped. It has become smaller as returns have risen.
Height is the resolution of one known size. Bond sell-offs have no volume, and the market decides how far they will go. The return is above 5% Compete directly with assets that pay nothing.
There is another way to read it. If the Treasury is forced to continue borrowing at higher rates, the deficit grows and so does the supply of bonds. Many in the cryptocurrency space see this as the long-term case for Bitcoin. But it is the short-term impact at the moment that is showing up in flows.
So far, Bitcoin is still holding on to the move. It does not extend.
What does the graph say?
On the 3-day chart, Bitcoin broke above the level $70,000 The area is around August 20. She then spent a few weeks consolidating nearby $80,000 Before it rose again last week.
This second breakthrough is important. It was arguably the first higher high on higher time frames since the bear market began, and the price reached the top $87,000 Before retreating.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 3-day chart with 20 and 50 EMA. The break above $80,000 marks the first higher high since the bear market began, and the 20 EMA has crossed above the 50 EMA. Source: TradingView
Moving averages support the same picture. The 20 EMA crossed above the 50 EMA on the 3-day chart for the first time since it crossed lower in November 2025, which is roughly where the bear market began.
The price is now tracking the recent upward wave. The next higher time frame support is located at $80,000And the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the movement around it $75,000 to $87,000 It is located directly above it, near $81,000.
As long as you hold Bitcoin $80,000 area, the overall structure can still be read as a building. A sustained move below that level would put this high rally into question.
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About PrimeXBT
PrimeXBT is a global multi-asset broker and crypto asset services provider, trusted by traders in over 150 countries. The platform connects traditional and digital markets within one integrated environment, redefining diversity and innovation in online trading. Clients can access Forex and CFDs on indices, commodities, stocks, cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrency futures, as well as buy, store and exchange cryptocurrencies. This unified experience extends across both the native PXTrader 2.0 and MetaTrader 5 platforms, supported by advanced risk management tools and a wide range of funding options in cryptocurrency, fiat and local payment methods. Since 2018, PrimeXBT has focused on empowering traders through broad multi-asset access, fair and transparent terms, professional technology and dedicated human support. By combining experience, trust and a client-first approach, PrimeXBT sets the standard for excellence in the financial industry and provides traders the tools they need to trade, grow and succeed with confidence.
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